By Nadeera Dickwella. ( Photo Credit Jerusalem Post )

Disclaimer – As a lit community , we condemned violence and strongly believe that war is no sensible means of solving an issue. We feel that there is a historical duty for every writer, blogger , author to create a space where people with different opinions could sit down to talk without resorting to arms. With that in mind, we launch our article series of how the war in Ukraine could be interpreted by each belligerent as their own victory. So that they could finally be content with their position and stop the carnage that is becoming a human tragedy. We believe that by analysing both sides of the coin and allowing each belligerent to see their gains vs losses , a political debate could be started, a ceasefire could be initiated and Ukrainian statehood could be restored in its full form. It is an achilles heel. But not an impossible task.

The Ukrainian counter offensive is rolling on. From the western media to , military experts to political elites are quite very skeptical about a successful outcome of the offensive. Hypothetically, if the counterattack fails to make a sensible gain multiple scenarios could happen.

A Russian offensive to capture further territories, a full mobilization of Ukraine to halt the Russians, a forced peace talk with a weakened Ukraine, a staged coup in Ukraine , Ceasefire with peace forces of a neutral country ( which is hard to find ) , NATO intervening on some pretext , Poland entering western Ukraine on their own , a resurrected Prigozin capturing the Souvlaki gap are some of the possibilities that amounts to unrealistic to possible outcomes . Some of those possible scenarios could be described as a Russian victory . It is fair to say that an unforeseen and an unfortunate defeat of Ukraine could qualify a definitive victory for Moscow and China and every one who contributed to that fate by being active, passive or complicit. But is it so ? Can Moscow appear to win in Ukraine But realistically be the loser or in other words can Washington pull a victory off a defeated ally ?

To clarify that we need to understand two realities corresponding to victory and loss . Firstly in war, one could make a tactical victory by employing the theory of “ lose the battle but win the war” strategy in the long game. Secondly a state could defeat its rival by recreating the Latin expression of “Mors tua vita mea” condition in a geopolitical theater which means your death is my life theory. In the jungles a death of one animal is the life of another. One prevails at the expense of the other’s life. In contemporary society this means that there will be only one winner that will emerge in a competition at the expense of the other. In the Ukrainian scenario a militarily defeated Ukraine collaborates with both the above theories to justify the American victory.

One could define what is “ victory” in tens of ways including popular but cheap headlines made to play to the gallery . But for a state who engages in a foreign war the true victory is not just raising its flag over the invaded state’s capital or its leader chest-thumping, bragging about how heroically troops under his command maimed, killed, annihilated everything moving that his country identified as enemies not worth giving the right to life . If that was the case the American invasion of Iraq could have been hailed as a strategic victory for the USA not a reason for its decline and eventual retreat from the middle east. It is the same for Moscow. We just need to critically look at the bigger picture in Ukraine with a reference to Russian losses not limited to Ukrainian theater. While Russia may or may not raise its tricolor flag over Kiev and say they united the Slavic brothers of two states by killing a substantial number of fellow brothers , their military victory will be dwarfed by the magnitude of overall losses.

Before the Russians launched their offensive they were the umbilical cord of Europe. Supplying nearly 40 % of the European energy demand, being the raw material provider for the European industrial mil, enjoying unrestricted travel Russians used to trade with all the capitals alike. Being the transit route for the Chinese led BRI that connects China with the EU, being the logistic hub of the resource rich central Asian states for trade with the rest of the world, collecting a hefty sum from all the airlines that crossed Russian airspace to reach the central and East Asian regions they used their geography uniquely. With military and economic powers they had impactful influence in all the European institutions which Moscow held membership in. Moscow-on-Thames was a tax haven for wealthy Russians who lobbied for Moscow’s interest in the United Kingdom. Ex heads of European states served in Russian enterprises including the powerful one time German chancellor Helmut Kohl. Rightwing political leaders openly embraced the Russian political thinking related to immigration, LGBTQ+ rights, religion and other conservative notions. Some were allegedly funded by the Kremlin and generous airtime was given for those voices in Russian media spaces . Russia had an undeniable political influence in all the major capitals that mattered. The neutral Finland and Sweden eased the Russian military burdens without having to extend and focus on them. Russian athletes, musicians, academics, actors were everywhere in the world. Their diplomats patronage exhibitions , cultural exchanges and other public functions. Russian weapon deals kept happening even with the western pressure making them a close number two to the United States. President Putin’s opinion mattered for a number of burgeoning issues concerning security ,energy, arms control and trade. There were investments in Russian mining , energy and other industries by reputed western conglomerates. Western brands thrived in Russian land giving its population ample choices and value for money. Latest technology in many sciences was shared with Russia in the codevelopment of the resources market, auto industry , and many others. Russian orthodox religious leaders had an oversized say in Ukraine and the soviet monuments existed in their original shape. At least they were not subjected to the same fate like the American confederate statues. In Ukraine and Moldova pro-Russian voices were still heard, mattered and given airtime. Powerful heads of state paid courtesy calls on the Kremlin regularly. Russian military doctors and emergency staff were in Italy helping them in their battle against Corona. It is fair to say that none of those were overnight gains. Russians worked hard on policy level, political level to bring the relationships to such a degree with their EU neighbors as well as states like Japan , Korea and the rest of the west. They had to work around the clock to sustain them and make those relationships profitable to the Russian state and its people while earning due respect as equals in global forums. Washington always perceived this relationship as an unholy alliance that served Moscow thus did everything in their capacity to undermine it.Western capital, ideas, goods and services improved the quality of life of ordinary Russians to varied degrees. Some of those achievements were post Soviet and some were the success of President Putin’s personal relationships.

It took only one fateful decision and one year and a half to reverse every single one of those achievements that we mentioned above. The United States only had to lead the show and introduce the sanctions as well as provide a steady military supply line to its new found slavic ally. The entire thing fell apart like a house of cards.

Challenging Russia economically and militarily has given the Americans what we could interpret as a perfect ‘‘ Mors tua vita mea” condition. Russia’s umbilical code with the EU, Japan and the rest of the western world has been served for the foreseeable future. Russia has no more political say in European decisions. Federation’s legendary diplomat Sergei Lavrov is a persona non grata in every EU capital. Its military has been forced to extend beyond the traditional underbellies and focus on a length of 1,340 kms long northern border with once a neutral now a NATO member Finland. NATO troops are massed in its eastern frontier grown not only in numbers but readiness and weaponry. What was once a rotating token force is now a battle ready army that could march on the Russian federation at the drop of a hat.

No new western technology is coming to upgrade , maintain the western produced air carriers let alone the mining or energy industry. Russian media that functioned all over Europe as Moscow’s voice, influence and an instrumental of sowing panic and division has been silenced. Traditional buyers of Russian defense products are being snatched by eastern and western rivals . Their weapons systems that were still in use within the Eastern and central European states are being shipped out and replaced with American ones giving the American arms industry a huge boom and profits. The URAL crude oil that was once flown from various ports to their respective destinations peacefully are now being shipped in shadowy tanker fleets in what could not be called trading but an operation of oil smuggling. American LNG is the dominant player in the EU market making huge profits , recovering a substantial portion of what Washnigton spends in the defense of Ukraine. Russia is unable to leverage its energy against any European state. Their main banks are disconnected from the global financial systems. Even with a Russian flag over the Verkhovna Rada, the overall collateral loss seems to be colossal.

By serving the economic, political ties Russia had with the EU, Washngton not only got a huge market of 448 million to do as they please but also the uncontested role of being its sole leader directing its policies. There is not a single country that will disrespect or dishonor the American decisions. The USA is the de facto voice of the EU. The famous quote of “When America says jump… you just say say ‘how high?'” used by Denis Healey in ridiculing the then Thatcher government when America mercilessly invaded the British commonwealth of Grenada without the knowledge of Britain , is well suited to describe the current state of affairs between Brussels and Washnington. They have totally lost any meaningful political independence. By politically dislodging Russia with the EU, the true Transatlanticism is slowly but steadily brought to its optimum at the cost of European independence. What better times for the Americans in its history of European relations.

Well there are ripple effects that bring additional benefits to Washnigton while causing collateral damage for Russian partners. Classic example is the China led Belt and Road initive’s “ New Eurasian Land Bridge “ that connects the Pacific Ocean with the Atlantic. The main artery of Beijing – EU connectivity route that runs through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland and Germany is now crippled. With the Russian transit corridor becoming a taboo gateway China is forced to look for more expensive, complicated alternative routes such as the middle corridor where the USA can monitor and influence and who knows even cause trouble of some sort. The death of Russian economic integration with the west is undoubtedly the greatest victory for the Amercians. Most importantly Russia has been forced to fight a brotherly slavic nation which is an ethical and moral degradation. In centuries to come no Russian leader will be able quote Nikolai Danilevsky and openly discuss a panslavic world, having mortally damaged another slavic nation that amounts to moral complicity. So at the end of the day even if Russia comes on top as the victor in Ukraine, they would have still lost the war while the United States would be the winner who managed to pull the rug under Moscow’s feet snatching a tactical victory at the expense of the Russian federation .

In the next article we will argue on how Russian losses in the west have been duly compensated in the Global south irrespective of being the prey of an American strategy in what could be headlined as “Mors tua vita mea – Your Death is my Life “ How Russia would pull a Tactical victory out of Ukraine.