By Dhanuka Nadeera Dickwella ( Picture credit -Sri Lanka Guardian)

“ Houthis are not your day today rebels nor are the naval men of Sri Lanka your ordinary Naval force.”

Houthis are not your day-to-day rebels nor they are the fanatic jihadist. They are a formidable fighting foe whose resilience could not be broken by the American, British-aided Saudi military coalition. Of course, they are being bankrolled, armed to the hilt with the newest armaments by the Iranians. Houthis have been in global headlines on and off ever since they rose to power with the ouster and finally the assassination of the dictator former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Houthis marched right up to the doorway of the “Gate of Grief ” or the strait of Bab-el-Mandeb by capturing the port of Aden that sits right on the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. Although they were expelled from Aden by the Saudi-UAE coalition forces eventually, Houthis managed to retain firm control of the Yemeni Capital Sanaa. As they shot to power after Saleh lost control, they became the de facto government of Yemen once the military joined hands with them. The Saudi Houthi peace deal as well as the Americans delisting the movement as a terrorist organization gave them further recognition as a legitimate power. Although not recognized by the United Nations as the legitimate Yemeni government, Houthis nonetheless represent a substantial part of the population and control swaths of lands with a robust military.

Once the Gaza conflict emerged, Houthis in solidarity with the Palestinians started to target Israeli ports. When Tel Aviv was not deterred by the Houthi threats, the attacks were directed towards ships owned by the Israelis. Finally, in a further escalation, any ship bound for Israel started to see the wrath of the group’s drones and ballistic missiles. This is a developing theater where many things and anything could happen. 

Against this backdrop, the United States of America introduced a naval task force known as Prosperity Guardian to safeguard shipping across the Red Sea and especially around the strait of Bab-el-Mandeb which is a crucial global shipping chokepoint. To deter the Houthis and their patrons the United States brought an impressive Armada consisting of the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and her escorting Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, USS Gravely, USS Laboon, USS Mason, and unnamed submarines as customary for such a dispatch. In the past, such shows of force always worked. American deterrence was understood and respected.

But to the dismay of USA-led Western security establishments, the Houthis do not seem to have got the deterrence memo. Instead of climbing down the ladder, they have escalated both the number of attacks and the periphery of them going as far deep as seas close to India and Maldives. The Red Sea theater was reaching a tipping point where it could transform into a wider, regional war. The Americans had only the bad options available. While An attack on Houthis could have brought unprecedented regional and global consequences, doing nothing could have made them a paper tiger. Houthis seemed to be Pandora’s box in the conflicts.

The 10th of January saw a barrage of missile, suicide drones directed at the British warship HMS Diamond and the American naval assets. Americans and the British were forced to call the Houthis bluff. Americans could not go any further with the humiliation of being inactive since it could only encourage more attacks. They went ahead with an air raid and a missile salvo in Yemen with the British flanking them. The only surprising thing about the attack was that it was public news, headlines all over the world hours before the pilots boarded their bombers. Houthis were given enough time to have their meals, say their prayers, and move their strategic assets, had they been exposed to satellites. It is not unprecedented for a nation to carry out a pre-announced attack on a potential enemy. It is done for a couple of reasons. Primarily such a method is used when the attack is a face-saving effort to avoid a further escalation or to show to the rest of the world that deterrence is not lost. The basic norm is that the enemy should understand the ability and the will of the big-power involved. It could very well be considered as the entree to a grand buffet. This type of pre-communicated attack has been done earlier in Syria by the West and by Iranians on an American base in the aftermath of the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani Those attacks are theatrical shows of force. Barking loudly instead of biting nonetheless showing the teeth.

It is fair to assume that the Houthis must have expected such a reaction thus planned for the exact same scenario from the inception. Besides they have an excellent track record of surviving any aerial bombardment. Even with the carpet bombing of Yemen by the Saudi coalition for years, Houthis could not be stopped. You do not need divine wisdom to conclude that an evening bombing run has any capacity whatsoever to decapitate the Houthis’ ability to wage a protracted war. The only reason why the Houthi drones and missiles are not flying towards the Saudi Kingdom is the peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia which eventually led to a similar deal between the Saudis and Houthis. Houthis are yet to react to the US missile attack but seem to have fired the first shots by striking the US-owned and operated container ship M/V Gibraltar Eagle with an anti-ship ballistic missile as this article goes for publication. This is a sign of troubles to come. It is way too early to assume how effective the American British bombing has been. If Houthis defy the Americas and keep harassing the Red Sea shipping, we have to conclude that Americans have lost their deterrence sadly.

In light of this critical development, a tiny Island nation has decided to dispatch one of its naval ships to counter the Houthi threats. The Island nation is none other than Sri Lanka which is a vital stakeholder in global shipping and trade. Her crown Jewel of the port of Colombo being ranked the 24th Best Port in the World, Sri Lanka has a lot to lose in any disruption of global shipping. Sri Lankan ports work as transshipment point and act as a key maritime conduit between the east-west shipping. That is one reason why the Chinese have a very strong strategic presence and consider the Island as the maritime Cogwheel in the Belt and Road Initiative. Eastbound ships avoiding the usual route through the Red Sea will impact the Sri Lankan port business and add additional cost to the already soaring economy. With this logic, Colombo had a role to play and a place to assume in the Indian Ocean security irrespective of its size.

Let’s face the reality though. It goes without saying that the Houthis who defied the Algire Burke-class destroyers, stealth subs, and giant aircraft carriers will be intimidated by a far less capable Legend-class cutter a Hamilton-class cutter, or a Type 053H2G frigate which has no means to counter the types of attacks initiated by them. Those are consequently the three vessels gifted by the USA and China that Sri Lanka could dispatch for such a mission. But there is a different logic in play. Two factors to be precise. Who the Sri Lankan navy is and the country’s geopolitical stand.

Just as much as the Houthis are not your ordinary rebels, the Sri Lanka navy is also not your ordinary naval force. Sri Lanka’s navy is a battle-hardened, experienced, formidable force that has proven the purpose of its existence many times throughout history for the people and the state it protects. It has proven its valor, bravery, resilience, and courage beyond any navy around the globe. Outnumbered and outgunned they held the line blocking the massive invading Indian interventionist fleet during the 80s. India was challenged and humiliated by the mosquito fleet Sri Lanka had at the time. The brave men put their lives on the frontlines and stood their ground protecting Sri Lanka’s national interest, state sovereignty, independence, and most importantly its citizens’ dignity. Ultimately JR Jayawardana had to eat the humble pie under immense pressure from J N Dixit led Indian diplomats and folded back. When India failed to violate our maritime borders in the face of fierce resistance from the Sri Lanka navy, Colombo was forced to allow India to violate the country’s airspace willingly. That national humiliation is something the Island nation will feel for the rest of its time. So will the fond memories of their brave sailors fending off an aggressor. 

Impressive is a word that will undermine the combat experience of the Sri Lankan sailors. Colombo’s navy comes with an attested reputation of fighting and emerging victorious against a non-state actor who possessed a lethal naval fleet. Now defunct terrorist organization, the LTTE had their maritime terror wing known as the Sea Tigers consisting of tens of attack crafts and suicide vessels manned by notorious suicide carders. Those human torpedoes were the worst nightmare of any navy ever to have sailed the seas. Sea tigers that grew into a monsters at sea with the tacit support of a dozen nations across the globe were the bitter enemies who ruled the waves for a long time in certain sea areas during the war. The sea arm of the LTTE terror movement not only sank several Naval vessels using suicide crafts and naval skirmishes but also kept smuggling active through the vast seas. 

Sri Lanka Navy adapted eventually to this threat and with improved improvised technology, and tactics, fought to the bitter end with what they had. It is commonplace that a rebel group fighting the state on an Island will have no way to survive without supplies through the sea. From armaments, ammunition, and medicine to materials were all smuggled through the sea lanes for decades by the LTTE’s sea tigers simply owing to the fact that the country’s navy had neither the capacity nor the technology to stop them. With the humble fleet, and little resources available to them, the Sri Lankan navy not only managed to deny sea access to the LTTE but also annihilated their auxiliary fleet. They didn’t have the luxury of the highest and the most modern tech nor did they have massive firepower. Under-equipped, understaffed, overwhelmed, and overstretched, they still managed to defeat the LTTE at the very seas once they were once dominating. That was a precedent the country set across the globe to never allow a non-state actor to be a dominant sea power. We can not make comparisons between the Houthis and the LTTE in terms of many factors. But the Sri Lankan navy is the only naval force that will be heading to the Red Sea with such unique experience under their belt.

Currently, the Sri Lanka navy is protecting the maritime boundaries and the marine assets by yet another invading force. The Indian fisher community with their devastating bottom trawling has been wreaking havoc in the northern seas. This not only violates the country’s sovereign maritime space but also threatens the livelihoods of tens of northern fisher folks while destroying the ecosystems undersea. Then there are drug peddlers who smuggle the drugs emerging from the golden crescent of the central Asian region. Sri Lankan waters have been used as an international drug transshipment hub. While this is a Global menace, the impact on the country’s social structures could not be underestimated. Again it is the navy that fights the narco smugglers who are trying to use the sheer open size of the Indian Ocean.

Houthis have openly mentioned the fact that any coalition navy that partners with the American mission will also be targeted. That was one of the reasons the Western partners such as France, Spain, and Italy left the American Armada. Technically this makes the Sri Lanka navy a potential target. But there is a different calculation here. Iran and Sri Lanka’s long-standing relationship. Throughout the times Sri Lanka has had a cordial, warm relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Sri Lanka has never voted against Iranian interest in the UN or vice versa. There is a very great chance that IRGC will instruct the Houthis not to target a naval vessel from Sri Lanka. While attacking an American ship would boost the images of the Houtis and by default the Iranians, doing the same for a ship from a friendly nation would tarnish their image in the global south. Global South is the camp where Iranians enjoy the biggest support and rely on for their very own survival. It makes no sense for Iran to direct its proxies to attack the Sri Lanka navy, costing irreversible reputational damage on its own. 

Sri Lanka has been a vociferous pro-Palestinian voice at the United Nations. It has kept voting to support Palestine in every vote that was called. However, this does not come at the cost of its relationship with the state of Israel. Sri Lanka remains a safe place for Israeli tourists while tens of Sri Lankans are employed in Israel. A part of Sri Lankans would demonstrate in front of the UN office in Colombo with anti-war, anti-Israeli slogans while another part of the population would enjoy reading Michael Bar-Zohar’s Mossad as their favorite book of choice. This is a unique situation where a nation gets to have the cake and eat it at the same time. This is how a naval vessel of Sri Lankan origin will be shielded by the Houthi attacks. Sri Lanka’s geopolitical stand as a non-aligned member and a global south nation could come in handy and guarantee the safety of the sailors.

The decision to dispatch a naval asset to the Red Sea seems to have attracted bitter sentiments in many circles in Sri Lanka. There are three such groups. One who criticizes the economic wisdom of such a move when the country is going through a rocky economic recovery. The other groups are the Pro-Palestinians who see the action as a betrayal of the people of Palestine and taking the side of the Israelis. The third group is the nationalistic factors who see the move as dragging Sri Lanka to the American camp, ditching the neutral foreign policy. They also float the idea of an alleged American 8th fleet in the making which Sri Lanka is a part of. Each of these sentiments has some merit or other. This debate itself is a sign of a healthy democracy not necessarily an outright objection nor the opinion of every single citizen. Some groups see the mission as a positive development and the country’s commitment to free trade and the right to free passage. Simply there could be pro and anti-opinion holders for everything that has a political sense. There were Americans who did not think the moon mission was something the nation should have gone ahead with at the time. 

It is highly doubtful that the bill for the mission will be footed by Sri Lanka. There is a very likely possibility that the Americans will compensate in some way or another. They don’t have to pay anything to the treasury in the name of the naval mission, instead could opt to extend a development program that the government will be initiating. Who knows they might even offer to upgrade Sri Lanka’s naval capacities or donate a ship that will be decommissioned in America. As of now despite all the concerns, the ship’s journey does not seem to be stopping. It is surely going to sail to the Red Sea.

In Geopolitical terms, Sri Lanka is making a significant presence in a global event. Houthis actions serve no purpose for any state that depends on trade. The shipping community will not take a loss for the increased insurance premiums or extra fuel they have to spend on alternative routes. All those bills will have to be borne by ordinary citizens worldwide. Houthis settling the scores with Israel at the expense of the rest of the world makes no sense. Global trade has to be passed through sea passages unhindered and with no threat. 

The only downside of this entire operation is how reliable the Americans are in the long run. In the face of deals, they have a habit of abandoning any of their partners. Including even the western partners such as France which was forced out of the Australian Submarine deal due to the forming of AUKUS. From Venezuela’sJuan Guaidó to Syria’s Free Syrian army to Kurds to Georgia’s Mikheil Saakashvili to the people of Afghanistan, the list goes on. Americans have a terrible track record of throwing anyone under the bus when the purpose has run its course. The real question is, if America decides to cut a deal with Teheran and leave its Prosperity Guardian partners for dry, then what? 

Then there are other players who see the crisis through an entirely different lens. Namely China and Russia. Although the Red Sea tensions are taxing the Chinese economy, they are nonetheless victors in this for a couple of reasons. This tension is bad enough to keep American naval assets tied up and stretched, making their commitment to the Pacific theaters, and South China Sea a difficult task. Americans could be in a few theaters simultaneously but with possible limitations. If the American navy bogs down in the wars in the sands, their pivot to Asia will die a natural death. That could very well be translated into a Chinese strategic gain. Houthi forces do not target vessels that identify them with a Chinese link. That is a PR victory in the power projection. In this sense, Chinese interest directly aligns with that of the Houthis.

Russians are also winners of the Red Sea chaos. The European economies have shifted away from Russian energy dependence relying heavily on American, Qatari, African, Gulf oil products and LNG. With the shipping delays due to rerouting and increased insurance and freight costs, already souring Euro economies would flunk further. That will force the policymakers to rethink the logic of supporting their Ukrainian counterparts. The recent German decision to authorize the sale of Eurofighters to Saudi Arabia after holding that deal for years correlates with the Saudi decision to reduce the price of oil products. But that gain seems so short-lived for the Europeans with the Red Sea issue causing a hike in energy prices along with all the other commodities. This makes the Russian oil cap become a thing of the past sooner than later. Just like the Chinese-linked vessels, the Russian vessels go unharmed through the strait of Bab-el-Mandeb as a precursor to a changing global power dynamic. Russia gets the same benefit of stretching American assets in this theater that could have otherwise been used against them in helping Ukraine. When a conflict becomes a thing with a strategic value for big powers, they will have no interest in seeing it getting settled rather, escalate it. That could be one reason why Russia and China abstained from the vote on UN Security Council Resolution 2722 which created the pretext to launch the attack on Houthis. Russians have all the possibilities to use the Red Sea as a proxy conflict and settle scores with their enemies. The Houthi actions against the West are a blessing in disguise. If Russians decide, they only need to provide accurate intel or share some of their technologies with Sana. That will allow them to maintain plausible deniability while bleeding their foes and even mortally harming them. In the long run, the insecurities and deteriorating security in the existing communication lines will only enhance the need, and importance of the Russian-led northern sea route as well as the North-South transport corridor. This is how a prolonged Red Sea crisis will give a strategic victory for Moscow. These are pieces of puzzles in a list of conflicts, chess moves to come that will be aimed at dethroning the American global power.

There is something the Americans have to pay attention to very carefully. Irrespective of Sri Lanka’s unwillingness to get herself dragged into any anti-Chinese-Russian alliance, the USA should realize that Colombo is a partner worth investing in. The capacity building of the personnel to, help her develop a ship-building industry to, award some cutting-edge naval assets will not go wasted. The future geoeconomics and geopolitics will revolve around the Indian Ocean. It is the Ocean of the generations to come. Houthis could end up being a legitimate state actor and make a page-turner at some point. But the possibility of such non-state players emerging in another global theater, creating mayhem in the seas can not be ruled out. Having a world-class, armed-to-the-teeth navy in Sri Lanka will help sustain the peace in the Indian Ocean rim and beyond in centuries to come. That will certainly be a guardian of prosperity with no hidden motives that the Americans and the rest of the world could rely on.