By Dhanuka Dickwella

“ Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country” Sen. John McCain. 

If the senator was still alive today, he would have a lot to explain as to how the Eurasian gas station is knocking on the gates of Europe while ripping apart the United States-led unipolar world, brick by brick, layer by layer. How the West’s branding of post-Soviet Russia misled its own population and miserably failed them in identifying the resurgence of Russia, its ambitions, capacities, objectives and strategic direction is colossal. The infamous terms such as “ “a gas station masquerading as a country” or “Russia is a regional power” painted a big country with no strategic value or importance. So why worry? But by depriving them of the ability to look at the Russian Federation with a constructive attitude the West drove themselves in to a complete zone of surprise. Today when the Gas station with missiles or the regional power is knocking on the European gates challenging the American hegemonic stand, the Western world has suddenly woken up from a dream. Believing your own propaganda is both misleading and unwise while bringing more harm than benefit. Since the West is past redemption for its hubris worldview, they should at least try to decipher Russia’s ideological calculus and treat it for what it is; an alternative power centre where the Global South is happily gravitating towards . An alternative Pole they are unable to contain or isolate. Being realistic about Russia would allow Western policymakers to understand what President Putin’s endgame in the Eurasian mega-continent is.

Russian thinkers do not consider Russia as just another nation-state state but rather as a civilizational state that possesses a distinctive civilization – the Russian world ( Russkiy mir). Its approach to gaining power, reaching global dominance, and controlling its share of the world is based on a theory known as Tellurocracy among other things. This is a theory created by the famed Russian scholar Alexander Dugin. According to Dugin, a Tellurocracy or a land power is as below.

“ A tellurocracy is founded upon continuous continental holdings often along with a coast, but without any overseas territories, typically. Some key traits of a tellurocracy are central authority, conservatism, a meticulous bureaucratic apparatus, and a strong army, but with a weak fleet.”

Dugin’s version of Russia is a land power that is going to keep expanding in the Eurasian continent. This theory aligns well with the Russian military focus, posturing, and strength. They are an enormous landpower with millions of men and armour useful for land warfare, however with relatively a weaker surface maritime force. The only exception is the formidable underwater fleet which remains deadly, armed to the teeth, and a force that creates strategic ambiguity among its rivals cruising in all the world’s oceans. Despite the range and reach of its underwater fleet, Russia is not considered a maritime power or a Naval power. Of course, Russia poses a homegrown delivery system of deadly nuclear force through an array of sophisticated missiles that could reach any capital in any continent in the world. The sole purpose of such a force is deterrence at best and attack at worst. Their rival United States on the other hand is a Thalassocracy or rather the world’s most powerful maritime power which sails on all the major oceans. This fierce force could be used as a deterrent, power projection, intimidation, or an invading force.

Looking at Tsarist Russia, the Soviet Union, and the modern-day Russian Federation the theory of Russia is a Tellurocracy holds water. But there was one exception where they expanded beyond the seas to Alaska gaining control of an overseas territory. This exception of conquering the Alaskan region came to an end with the eventual real estate deal with the United States. However, Russia has consistently shown its appetite for expansion of its territory in the Eurasian space and this is a predominant trait in their DNA. 

True to Dugin’s words the only thing that has happened to Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union is the steady growth of its territorial size. There are plenty of examples. Starting with Georgia, Russia has effectively carved out the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This has landed the Georgian Republic in limbo with a permanent ambiguity of voting for meaningful European integration or joining the North Atlantic treaty. Irrespective of the type of government that comes to power in Tbilisi, Georgians can only do that much. Unless they somehow manage to relocate Georgia to some other friendly neighborhood, this ambiguity will go on eventually establishing the idea of integrating into a Russian-friendly model or facing another war down this path. This is an inevitable fate.

Belarus is pretty much an independent Republic with an enormous Russian economic, military, and political presence. But the independent nature of Belarus will depend on the lifespan of the strongman President Lukashenko. There will be no one even as close to filling his shoes and the day his health starts ailing, Russians will move on. Irrespective of what you call the political entity of Belarus, union state or otherwise; Belarus will only be another giant province of the Russian world at some point.

Russia’s application of Dugin’s theory was not limited to Georgia. It’s next candidate was Ukraine. Ukraine has always been a stubborn neighbor and its resistance was expected but probably not a protracted war where the norm of the Slavic brotherhood has become killing one another. Russia will swallow Ukraine bit by bit including the Western part where the anti-Russian sentiment remains at an astronomical level. Whether this process takes another 5 years or five decades, they will keep going. The Americans are well aware of this and that is the one reason they have had cold feet concerning Kyiv’s NATO membership from the 2008 Bucharest summit until now. But as the existing global hegemon, the United States will not give Russia a free ride in Ukraine.

Moldova has already been marked and the Dugin’s world view is already partially applied. Luckily for Russia, the country has not only breakaway regions but also a substantial pro-Russian population. Cherry on the top is that Moldova is a functioning democracy. The coming elections will be used to defeat Maia Sandu for good. She only needs to lose one election and if it happens, the street protests asking for her dismissal are as sure as ice in Alaska.

South Caucasus is Russia’s soft underbelly and the Russians have always had mixed feelings about its historical foe, the NATO member Turkey. Armenia’s struggle for peaceful coexistence, and democratic governance and its orbiting towards Europe is bad news for Moscow. But this is a region where Moscow has played the power game with two competitive powers from very ancient times. They have enough and more leverage and strings to pull. Russia is well aware that Armenians are one nation whose will can not be crushed. But for now, they will let this theater evolve until it reaches a point they deem critical. What they might do after could be one of many things. They might create conditions for Baku to start a war with the Armenians and when their statehood seems to be in peril, a CSTO-led peacekeeping force might be sent to police the borders between the warring nations. The negotiations that come after will be used to subjugate the Armenian political freedoms in a way Moscow sees as friendly. A landlocked Armenia surrounded by three states that do not want to see outside powers in the region plays well in to Kremlin’s hands. This anti western neighbourhood solidarity will strangle Yerevan at the end. The only way the West can support the Armenian military is through Georgian airspace which will surely be closed for any outside air mission during a time of conflict. How Armenia’s newly found allies hang it out to dry at the neediest hour will be used to intimidate the Central Asian leaders who are now openly flirting with the West. West will be portrayed as an unreliable ally.

There is simply no use of talking about the Central Asian nations. Either through economic pressure or economic integration, political pressure or support, military backing or interventions, Russian interest will be preserved and sustained. If someone believes that the west can do anything meaningful in the region, I have the “Trans Caspian Gas Line” to sell which the USA is trying to build from 1996.

Until such time that the Russian soft underbellies are in firm control, maneuvering space for Western influence is denied, post soviet landlocked nations become politically landlocked, an expanded strategic depth for Moscow is created, the Russian Federation will keep moving. In this confrontation for space, it won’t matter to Russia what the west might or might not do.It will steamroll anything that stands in its way. Putin might not see Dugin eye to eye all the way but what is unfolding in the Eurasian continent is the very blueprints of Tellurocracy to the letter.