By Nadeera Dickwella

“If you want peace, prepare for war” 

There is a cold peace shrouded in a sinister ambience on the northern Israeli border with Lebanon. On both sides of the fence there are heightened military movements and the highest level of vigilance. Once in a day random projectiles fly towards Israel which is met with a returning fire. Political leaders on both sides keep their rhetoric high, repeating the calls to not to test each other’s patience. Yet one thing in this ever volatile landscape is missing. A hot war. 

It won’t be necessary to elaborate , analyze or compare the military capabilities of either the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) or Hezbollah. Unless for what could be under each other’s sleeves the whole world is aware that each of them are armed to the teeth and capable of inflicting mortal damage on the other. Both of them have capable, powerful backers and the will to fight is at its optimal. At the very beginning of the daring and atrocious Hamas raid , the whole world expected Hezbollah to join the fight. In many instances there were individual flare ups and the media went on a frenzy the moment the Israeli radars were spoofed indicating a massive attack from Lebanon. Here we are on day six with no such action.But why is the Israeli northern front relatively silent ?

It is important to look at Iran to decipher this cryptic atmosphere. Hezbollah is the hound dog of Iran on a leash. Other than its own military capabilities, the Lebanese shia group is the most trustworthy, capable ally of Tehran. It is the last resort and a deterrent against many of Iranian enemies. Unless there is an existential threat on Iran itself , they will not give the greenlight for Hezbollah to act. At this juncture other than the menacing calls from certain  American individuals , there is no threat or risk to Iran. So there is very less incentive to activate the Israeli Northern front. 

The west itself says that there is no evidence to corroborate a coordination between Iran and the Hamas attack on Israel. This is contrary to the initial publication of one of the prominent Western journals that suggested an outright collaboration between Teheran , Hezbollah and Gaza militants. Whatever the truth is, it is fair to say that Iran has already achieved its political and military objectives without sacrificing Hezbollah but with a tacit support to Hamas. 

Saudi Arabia has suspended its normalization of relations with Israel. Had it gone ahead the deal would have dealt a death blow to Iranian geopolitical interest. With the deaths of Palestinians in Gaza the Arab regimes that signed the Abrahm accord are already in a bind and lost face. Their citizens are marching in every square supporting Palestinians and denouncing Israel. This public anger and their respective governments’ unpopular deal with the Jewish state could come full circle and threaten those regimes sooner than later. For Iran , Hamas is an expendable force. At their expense without firing a single bullet , Iran has folded the American geopolitical gains a few times over. As the victorious party , Teheran has zero reasons to initiate a regional war that might actually harm them. So there is grounds to speculate that Hezbollah will not participate in a hot war with Israel over the Gaza crisis for at least this time.

If Hezbollah wanted to critically damage  Israel, it would have entered the war on the very next day of the Hamas attack. The IDF was in a disarray and the Amercians were caught off guard. The element of surprise and the chaos was the greatest window of opportunity for a Hezbollah upperhand in such a war. But they waited until the Amercians and the entire NATO alliance transported enough military gear and support forces to Israel. They waited until the USA dispatched not one but two carrier groups to the Mediterranean while reinforcing its bases with tens of fighter jets . They waited until the IDF regained the lost control over the settlements it initially lost to Hamas. They waited until the IDF called tens of thousands reservists from all over the world and were transported to Israel. They waited until the IDF reinforced the entire northern border covering any and every gap. They waited until the entirety of the European and American political leadership visited Tel Aviv in support and solidarity. Now ask yourself ‘who in their right mind will wait until its arch enemy is fully prepared for a protracted and deadly fight “? Although in the geopolitical uncertainties we live in , it would be wiser to be skeptical of any cold peace observed by hostile parties, all roads on the Israeli northern front lead to a deterrence and only deterrence. 

It would also be interesting to draw some attention to the winners of the conflict to look at the bigger geopolitics at play as well as to understand on whose interest such chaos unfolded in such a highly secured state. We already know that Iran had the biggest portion of the pie. Who else could either share the breadcrumbs or a piece? Make no mistake that the winners are not implicated here as the collaborators  or supporters of Hamas. But they simply get to enjoy the contralateral gains.

At the G20 held in India, the Chinese Belt and Road project was challenged by the west and India with its proposed “ India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)”. Although BRI has had many such rivals that did not live to see the light of the day, leatone the implementation, IMEC was a promising proposal. Normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations was fundamental to this project other than a stable middle east. Beijing can now enjoy a smooth ride cementing its BRI gains in the region. Besides if it decides to press on with a sudden surprise attack against Taiwan, there will be very little the west could do to stop it.

Russia had the entirety of unified western ire to see its war in Ukraine was not a walk in the park. Military and monetary support looked endless to Ukraine. Western military assets were watching the entire length of the Russian federation helping Kiev to coordinate attacks. Now the western coffers seemed to suddenly run dry. There is no doubt that NATO had to fly much of its sensitive and critical military assets to assist Israel along with munitions that would have otherwise committed to Kiev. It is said that Isrerlis who were fighting or instructing the Ukranaians flew back to protect its motherland. The information warfare that was destroying the Russian global image has disappeared totally. No one seems to remember there was a war in Europe.Russia is pressing ahead with a massive counteroffensive gaining ground. Times could not have been any better for Moscow. 

The current Israeli government is a coalition of right wing parties. At least two of the coalition members are  ultra nationalist and religious  Jewish parties who are against the two state solution. Their version of Israel is a total annexation of the west bank and one that spans from the  Jordanian river border until the Mediterranean coast with no space for Palestnians. If Israel had to make a compromise to cement a deal with Saudis giving more lands to Palestinians and preserve its statehood , the vision of those ultra nationalist party leaders would have been jeopardized. Now for the foreseeable future there will be no consciousness among the Israeli public to accept such a peace deal with Palestinians which is an outright victory of those leaders. Although there is no such correlation , it would serve the public interest of the Israelis to know the role those party leaders played in overseeing state security. 

The United States is preparing for its presidential elections next year. Had the historical Riyadh-Tel Aviv deal went as planned , that would have strengthened President Biden’s image and given him substantial leverage. Now the entire American Right is pounding President Biden like a wolfpack. They call him weak and criticize his decision to release the US$ 6 billion to Iran. Troubles in the sands is always bad news for energy prices and the American economy as a whole. A chaotic global order erodes the chances of President Biden’s reelection efforts while giving a free ride to the American Republicans and the rightwing parties in Europe. The closely contested Polish election will be a sample of what is to come. This is why there is such a grandiose effort to contain the troubles in the Levant and make sure that the situation wont go out of hand specially with Hezbollah.

There is one more party that fell victim as collateral damage. The western Moral compass. Many western leaders criticized the Russian war in Ukraine as atrocious and made the loudest noise with regards to the Russian attacks on civilian energy infrastructure. The displacements of civilians were condemned and the ICJ went ahead with an arrest warrant making president Putin a war criminal. But when the state of Israel imposed a blockade on Gaza cutting its water and electricity, asking millions to leave homes, the western leaders not only whole heartedly stood by that decision, but made sure there was unanimous support for that. The set precedent will come to haunt them in decades to come. No western leader or human rights organization will be able to preach to any other nation in the global south to observe things that they themself can not practice. The western duplicity and the double standards will question the very essence of the term “ rules based order” since the rule creators are the first to break it.

Israelis – Palestinians are two sides of the same coin.  Israel’s right to coexist in its Arabic dominated neighbourhood, its effort to normalize ties with them should not be a thing alien in nature. Similarly the right of the Palestinians to their statehood and a dignified life for them shouldn’t be a contested policy issue but the birthright. The only thing one can achieve by appeasing the needs of  just one side will be a protracted state of conflict and war. It would be in the interest of the whole world to see that the Israeli northern front remains calm and cooler heads prevail. The world has reached the tipping point in this conflict. It is time for a sensible and comprehensive solution before humanity will have to fight the third world war that erupted in what is called the center of the world.