By Dhanuka Dickwella ( Pic credit Al-Monitor)

“What was Gaza, Palestine in 1947? What is it today? Israel, how did you get here? How did you enter? You are an occupier, you are an organisation,”

I reiterate that Hamas is not a terrorist organization. Israel was very offended by this. Israel is an occupier, Erdogan speaks clearly because Turkey does not owe you anything,” 

“From now on, we will continue on our path with the motto that we may suddenly knock on your door one night.” Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan

At a massive pro-Palestinian rally held in Istanbul, those were some of the words uttered by the Turkish president. As you can imagine the pro-Palestinian crowd was jubilant and made a hero out of him as a warrior fighting for the rights of the oppressed. The Israelis and the West condemned the actions. Erdogan upped the ante so much that some observers started to suggest an imminent Turkish military intervention. There was chatter in the information space that Pakistan would cover Turkey with its nukes in such a scenario. Assessment into the strength of the Turkish military, and how such an intervention would play out were made. Those claims were based on high-pitch rhetoric made by Erdogan along with other Turkish politicians and the way the world interpreted each such rant. But this speculation lacks depth, clarity, and reason. You just need to understand what Turkey stands for, to realize why it would never fight a war with Israel.

Turks have fought in a couple of conflicts recently. They fought Kurds in Syria and Iraq. Supported, and fought alongside the Azeris against Armenia. Despite all that they have not fought Israel even when the Jewish state killed 10 Turkish political activists in the Mavi Marmara incident where a Turkey-led Gaza-bound flotilla was bordered in international waters by the Israeli commandos and killed the activists. If Turkish blood did not matter for Erdogan at the time, how would Palestinian lives matter for him now? Pretending to be standing on the right side of history, projecting the image of a warrior who stood up for the safety of fellow Muslims strengthens his home front. By firing fiery speeches he targets the domestic audience that will finally flock around the AKP political party which he represents.

Erdogan is a brutal pragmatist and a cunning opportunist who plays everyone to his advantage. He has managed to achieve his long strategic and tactical victories on almost all occasions. For instance while being a NATO member to purchase Russian air defenses, while being the closest American ally in the Levant to bomb the American-trained Kurdish forces, while enjoying a plethora of special benefits from the EU to closely coordinate with the BRICS and Shanghai cooperation organization, while selling Byraktar to Ukraine buying the Russian gas are only a few of them. But there was one exceptional moment where he got outfoxed in a showdown with President Trump. When Erdogan decided not heed to the calls for the release of the imprisoned American pastor Andrew Brunson to force the hands of Trump, he lost the gamble. Trump being Trump went on a scorched earth policy against Turkey using the most sensitive underbelly of the republic. Namely the economy. Trump’s decision to escalate the ante resulted in plummeting the Turkish Lira to the lowest recorded. Eventually, Erdogan folded and released the Pastor as if nothing ever happened. Unless for this humiliating diplomatic defeat, Erdogan has managed to keep the cake while eating it with every American administration. When so much can easily be achieved without firing a single bullet why would a rational leader lead his nation to a destructive war? But then why go to such an extent of making the world believe that a Turkish military move is on the horizon? 

Erdogan’s rhetorics are based on shrewd geoeconomics and geopolitical calculations. He is counting the days after Hamas. In June this year, it was said that after a series of complicated negotiations between Israel, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority, the gas fields known as the Gaza Marine project were to be developed based on a profit-sharing agreement. Hamas was supposed to get a cut with a promise of not using the revenues to build its military arsenal targeting Israel. They had no choice but to allow PA to be their partner instead of them since PA is the legal entity that represents the people of Palestine. The ongoing hostilities will make sure that Hamas will have no such benefit. But their political wing who are roaming around Arab capitals and Ankara would still fight for their share with a proxy. No better partner than Erdogan wouldn’t think twice about making a deal even with the devil, if it benefits him. So it is fair to say that Marine One and Two gas fields of Gaza’s seas are clearly in his sight.

Then there is the East Med gas pipeline which is on ice for the moment but could become a reality only with the approval of Turks. Let me quote three interesting dialogues.

“Any agreement of this kind must be made with Turkey; we cannot think that Israel, Cyprus, and Greece can find an agreement [on the pipeline] without the participation of Turkey “Claudio Descalzi, the newly-reconfirmed CEO of Eni, Italy’s State-controlled energy major,

“We hope that Israel will be able to continue the dialogue with Turkey,” said Paolo Formentini, Vice President of the Foreign Affairs Committee,

“ the best option for such a project to work out is to bring Israeli gas to Turkiye, which can consume part of it domestically and ship some of it to Europe,” President Erdogan tells TRT World.

Erdogan would make a deal with Tel Aviv for the Gas deposits that belong to the Palestinians as well as ask for flesh and blood type of stakes in the East Med pipeline. He would gladly bundle the two projects and sweeten the deal with a promise of no bullets flying from Gaza toward Israel under their supervision. This is why he becomes one leader who would be wishing for a meaningful defeat of Hamas. The day after Hamas, global powers and regional powers will rush to interpret the status quo of Gaza. Before the Saudis move in, Ankara would try to become the caretaker power of the strip. As the former imperial custodian and as a man who had a vociferous support for the Palestinian cause, the Gazans wouldn’t mind such a move. 

He has no special love for the dying children of Gaza nor he cares about the civilian casualties and the destruction of the infrastructure. He only sees opportunity in all that carnage. Gaza will have to be rebuilt from the ashes. Not just roads and buildings but an entire ecosystem. There will be massive international funds amounting to billions to rebuild what’s destroyed. With cheap slogans against Israel and crocodile tears on behalf of the Gazans, it will surely be Ankara, not Riyad, that will get that lucrative construction opportunity to support its mega construction industry. The brutal truth is this.

He will gain so much political capital in the Muslim world and would use that to elbow out Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Muslim world. This undeclared cold war for the leadership is no secret irrespective of the recent warming of ties between the two rivals. As a peacekeeper or a security guarantor, Turkey could evoke an oversized leverage on Americans, Israelis, and every stakeholder of the decades-old conflict.  

Erdogans barks so loud that the world shakes, Arab streets go mad, outpouring cheerings from social media platforms resulting in the Palestinians divinely respecting him. But make no mistake he will only bark, he will not bite. This chest pumping is for the gallery and media. Unfortunately, it works like magic. It is quite ironic that the man who lambasts Israel for the Gaza blockade, himself supported the same heinous Blockade against the civilians in Nagorno Karabakh with his bedmate the Azeri dictator. 

“We will tell the whole world that Israel is a war criminal. We are making preparations for this. We will declare Israel a war criminal,” 

Erdogan chants the above while his ships unload energy and other cargo in Israel and while Turkish products are all over Israel. The simple truth is, that Turkey goes on business as usual with Israel. Erdogan loves Turkey and Turkey alone. He doesn’t have to justify why he stands on two opposing sides simultaneously. He doesn’t have to care so much about ethics, norms, and political correctness. The only thing that drives his loyalty is sheer opportunity. So for those who dream of seeing Turkish soldiers fighting in Gaza against the Israelis because of Erdogan’s words, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell to you.