By Dhanuka Dickwella. (Picture credit UAE Voice)

‘ If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favourable.’ Lucius Annaeus Seneca

In the day and age we live, it takes more than authority to lead a state as an independent sovereign entity while championing a multi-vector diplomatic front. Unlike the Cold War era where you could either be in the western or eastern camps or be non-aligned, today’s global divisions are far more complex, deadly, treacherous, and consequential. Unless a leader of a state, possesses a larger-than-life charisma, political wisdom, character, and most importantly “pragmatism”, the chances of him or her being lost in the footnotes of history are high. Namesake leaders would go down in history as mere puppets serving the interest of either one of the global great powers instead of leading the citizens as a free nation.

Looking at the UAE and its leadership under “Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan” one could realize how difficult times produced much more than oil kings the Middle East used to have. Known as a Machiavellian Svengali in some circles “Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan” or MBZ has been admired for one thing by his critics and support bases alike. His brutal pragmatism. Before exploring his pragmatism, it would be important to understand two things briefly. How complex is the geopolitics globally and what kind of a role UAE plays in that intricate web as a West Asian power and an Islamic center with tolerance as its base?

There is no end to global rivalries. The world is divided more than ever on economic, security, religious, ideological, geographical, and other lines. Let’s look at a few of them. The traditional outlier is the East-West rivalry where the West has ruled the rest of the world for centuries. Now there is a competition to dethrone the west from that eternal glory. Then you have the economic blocks such as G7 and BRICS that are a reflection of east-west economic competition. On security dimensions, the NATO camp, its patrons, and proteges against the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an emerging domain. Then there is the tug of war for global dominance. The partners of the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative against the anti-BRI initiatives such as the American-led India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). In the Islamic world, there is the millennia-old Sunni-Shia division that keeps playing between the Iran-led Shia camp and the Saudi-led Sunni order. Within that Sunni circle, Turkey and UAE are competing for the top spot with the traditional heir Saudi Arabia who is globally known as the custodian of the Islamic world. Not to forget the decades-old rivalries between the Middle Eastern dynasties, political elites, and groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. Then some wars force states to take sides. The conflict of Russia Ukraine and Israel Hamas is very different from any war the world experienced over the last few decades. No state could avoid the impact of those divisions. 

Looking at the Western camp, most of the leaders are clearly behind the American leadership. Even the once proud civilizational states like France have lost any meaningful independent political say. Germany, the economic powerhouse, is just parroting whatever the white house dictates. Once a glorified empire, Japan doesn’t even appear in geopolitical maps in terms of a voice. What is clear is that your economic might and distinct culture will not make you an important world capital unless you could pull Charles de Gaulle out of your political leadership. 

Meantime the global south has come out of the closet from decades of forced exile. The southern leaders show way more spine than their northern counterparts despite their small sizes, weak economies and average military might. Those countries have produced some leaders who know how to punch above their weight class. Instead of becoming expendable pawns in power games of great powers, they act on self-interest or the national interest of their state. Their action is solely based on one thing: “Pragmatism”. Those are the leaders who could shake hands with President Biden and be seen all the way to his car by President Putin with his personal jacket as a gift. Those are leaders who get red-carpeted welcomes in Moscow, Beijing, Washington, Brussels, and New Delhi. Irrespective of the fact that they are politically correct or stand on the right side of history, those leaders are needed to hold the global order without plunging humanity into nuclear winters. The role they play in dealing with every camp has been more commendable than the United Nations whose legacy is long tainted and has lost its importance to any degree that matters.

Against that backdrop, UAE has emerged as a powerbroker, peace facilitator, investing engine, strategic infrastructure hub, global financial center, connecting point on a global scale, and a role model in the Islamic world. More than anything UAE is the beacon of hope for a world where competing interests could coexist. Let’s look at how UAE, the tiny Middle Eastern power, has hedged its bets under the leadership of MBZ. 

The famed and loved Western sporting clubs such as Arsenal, AC Milan, and Real Madrid are all sponsored by none other than UAE’s flagship carrier “Emirates ‘. Globally acclaimed sporting events such as the PGA Tour, and ATP tennis events are patronized by this aviation giant. Emirates carries the UAE flag around the world in every capital from East to West Africa to the Pacific. Dubai ports world commonly known as the DP world meanwhile carries its own sports offensive. From the much-loved cricketing events such as the Asia Cup to segments of IPL or the Indian premier league to The international league Team, it is the DP world that hails as the sponsor. European tour to Formula 1 to McLaren motor racing finds DP World as their patron. How the UAE has mastered the art of using sporting soft power is truly remarkable. Sports have been close to us humans from the inception and the world tends to have a soft spot for the sponsors who enable the sports to take place with no hindrance.

DP world meanwhile deals with every global player alike in every continent connecting global trade through a network of ports and port infrastructure. They invest in the BRI-led Chinese seaports such as Ningbo-Zhoushan and Zhejiang simultaneously in China’s arch Rival India’s mega-container terminal at Kandla in western Gujarat. Some of their infrastructure acquisitions are more strategic in nature. Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam’s 30-year contract with DP World will allow them to have a major hold on the gateway to African trade. Berbera Port in Somaliland is a DP-partnered port project that will enable the rising Ethiopian economy to be connected to the rest of the world. Those two African ports alone will change the Geoeconomics in the region for the foreseeable future. One thing to remember is that all those investments give DP World a minimum of 3 decades to control economic outcomes in the waterways and the subsequent trade. The ports around the Gulf of Aden are either partnered, owned, or developed by the DP world. Namely Hadramawt, Shabwa, and Taiz, as well as the archipelago of Socotra and the island of Mayun (also known as Perim) in the Bab al-Mandab strait. A country that depends much on its food being imported, and its energy being exported, those investments make perfect sense. The entire network of ports connects the trading dots, allowing a security assurance closer to chalk points for the UAE. Coupled with the DP world’s strategically driven commercial acquisitions, the UAE’s naval doctrine seems to be assertive and going through modernization. Not limited to arming and expanding their fleets, the Emiratis are active partners of several regional security initiatives ranging from the French lead” EMASOH” a European patrol and surveillance mission to the USA-led Operation Sentinel or the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC) aimed at increasing the surveillance of and security in key waterways in the Middle East to ensure freedom of navigation. Evident to its strategic location and vital regional presence, the UAE has been the choice to host the headquarters of the EMASOH mission. That is a statement in itself.

“Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan” was the guest of honor at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the Russian analog of The World Economic Forum. President Putin has a very warm relationship with the UAE leader and vice versa. The amount of detailed fanfare, prominence, and show given to welcome the Russian leader’s UAE visit was evident in the magnitude of this relationship. The fact that UAE played a major role in the prisoner swap allowing the NBA star Brittney Griner to be exchanged for Viktor Bout, shows the degree of Emirati influence in the Russian political elites. Not even the centuries-old, time-tested friend of India could pull such a string. The trade volumes between Moscow and Abu Dhabi have increased in record numbers. UAE has been accused of helping Russia to circumvent sanctions and facilitating its war efforts by exporting electronic goods and other dual-use items. Not only the taboo Russian diamonds, and gold but also the Russian crude comes to the UAE, only to be refined and sold back to Europe. In every OPEC + meeting UAE is on board with Russians to curb production to keep the gasoline prices high. The Russian wager group has been allegedly funded by the UAE in Libya and elsewhere in Africa. 

Russia has seen the value of its ally and has been returning the favor in kind. To facilitate Al Nahyana’s efforts to diversify and establish a multi-faceted post-fossil fuel economic era, Putin’s Russia is actively supporting. From London grad, the billions of Russian money is now channeled to UAE. Tens of Russian companies are leaving European capitals and establishing their empires in the sands. A million Russian tourists are to be patronizing the desert exotica in the season. As much as Russians hate the betrayals they adore those who help at the needy hours.

Any Other country being such a strong Russian ally that helps its economy grow and facilitate the war effort would have been branded as a pariah, the entirety of the Western wrath brought upon, sanctioned, black, and simply named and shamed. On the contrary, UAE’s leader is a well-respected statesman in American political circles. He is no stranger to Americans. For decades he has been purchasing American weaponry, and his troops have participated in American-led conflicts. But the watershed moment was the UAE’s decision to normalize the relations with Israel by signing the Abraham Accords. The Jewish state is a sensitive and critical piece of American global hegemony. It’s well-being and safety is more than a policy. Thus MBZ’s overture to Tel Aviv bought him a lifetime insurance policy that will keep his country as a strategic partner in American geopolitical strategies. Besides, the American administration is well aware of the influence MBZ possesses in the immediate region, Africa, and in the Islamic world. Most importantly his role in OPEC is a card that Washington has no way to counter. A couple of thousands of US troops are stationed in the Emirates. A US air force base in UAE guards both the Emirati and American interests in the region. So it is of no surprise that any American presidential administration would consult MBZ for every single matter in the Gulf and the adjacent regions. They will not hesitate to roll red carpets to him anytime he is a guest of Washington. 

Washington’s other global rival, Xi’s China, and the UAE enjoy a stable and progressive partnership.UAE remains to be an important partner in the BRI project. The scale is unprecedented. China has poured billions of dollars into propping up ports, railway networks, and free trade zones. UAE went ahead with the Chinese-owned Huwawei as its 5G partner despite the huge pressure piled up by the Americans. To add to the injury, it is rumored that a Chinese military base is under construction in the UAE. The judge who has passed this charge sheet is none other than the United States of America who themselves got their bases in the UAE and all over the world. The presumption that every military base other than the American ones is meant for bad purposes is truly a laughing stock. It is difficult to understand why the Americans believe that they only can have military bases anywhere they deem necessary for American interest. Whether the so-called Chinese base is a hoax or a real scheme will be known at some time. What is clear however is that MBZ is a daredevil whose audacity has no bounds for any global power. He is the grandmaster in this game and he alone would make the moves.

Similarly, China’s Asian competitor and the rising South Asian powerhouse India have more than trade relations with the UAE. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and UAE has resulted in bringing bilateral trade to a whopping USD 84.5 billion. UAE remains India’s third-largest trading partner and a very close ally. Prime Minister Modi’s seven visits to UAE are a loud whisper of how close the two partners are. This relationship is also shaped by the 3.5 million Indian workforce that helps drive the Emirati economy. Cozying up to the prevailing warm relations further, the UAE allowed a massive Hindu temple, the first in Abu Dhabi to be inaugurated by the Indian prime minister. Hinduism and such symbolic religious milestones play an unbelievable role in India’s domestic politics. This couldn’t have come at any better time than an election year in India. The UAE- India marriage is multi-dimensional. The I2U2 initiative, a partnership focused on economic development and food security amid global climate change between UAE, India, USA, and Israel is one of those. India has had a lone battle in combating the Chinese-led BRI for a while. India/USA -led IMEC thus became the convergence of geopolitical, and geo-economic interests of a host of Western nations who were all gearing up to undermine the rise of China. As one can correctly guess UAE was a critical piece of this multi-dimensional, intra-regional, Ship to rail trade route. Imagine the unique ability MBZ possesses to become a member of BRICS, a host member of BRI, and to play the most important role in its rival. 

In geopolitical terms that is legendary. This reminds us of the short-sighted political wisdom of the new Argentinian president Javier Milei who sold his country’s interest to achieve nothing but petty political headlines that don’t serve Buenos Aires. A leader must be practical and pragmatic enough to think beyond ideological dogmas when it comes to the country’s national interest. There are a lot of important lessons to learn from MBZ for those leaders cut from Javier Milei’s clothes. In MBZ’s vision, the country must come first, your differences is totally another thing.