By Dhanuka Dickwella

“Regarding global political significance, the Atlantic Ocean can be viewed as the ocean of our grandparents and parents; the Pacific Ocean as the ocean of us and our children; and the Indian Ocean as the ocean of our children and grandchildren.” 

(Marise Payne former foreign minister of Australia.)

Minster Payne’s remarks are a testament to the significance of the Indian Ocean to global balance of power and how political changes in the adjacent nations like Sri Lanka could play a crucial role towards that very factor and vice versa. With a focus on that statement, let’s look at how Sri Lanka is heading towards a critical presidential election. As with any election, the presidential election of 2024 is important for the general public of the country but this one in particular has an oversized geopolitical importance given the troubled, tense era we live in as well as due to the strategic location of the country. 

Sri Lankan politics is a thing of its own making. It is the unholy combination of good, bad, evil, and ugly. Machiavelli would have re-written “The Prince” had he had even a slight glimpse of Sri Lankan politics. The highly intense, brutal Russia-Ukraine trench wars look one hundred percent humane and innocent compared to the ruthless, throat-slicing, character assassinating, manipulating, winner takes it all and more types of politics that happen in Sri Lanka. Largely it remains nonviolent but the political attacks on public stages, media, and social media are not just political pitch battles but smashing your opponent below the belt. 39 contenders are promising sun, moon, and prosperity beyond the heavens to the 22 million inhabitants of this paradise of an Island. However, in the last weeks, the election has narrowed down to a three-way race. We will use this space to analyze the top three contender’s geopolitical competence and their ability to maneuver in a highly contested region. Namely the geopolitical credentials of the incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and the populist socialist front-runner Anura Kumara Dissanayaka. Although the former household name Rajapaksha family is fielding their eldest son Namal Rajapaksha, we will not bring him to the table due to the slim odds he possesses in winning at this stage.

It will be important to understand for whom the Sri Lankan political theater matters the most and why. There are at least 7 nations that have varied interests in Sri Lanka. Namely India, China, the United States, Pakistan, Russia, Japan and Australia.Given the significance we will only analyze the roles of India, China, and the United States in this article since the others are not as heavily invested as the top three.

Located within 45 kilometers to the north, with historic cultural, political, social, and economic ties, India emerges the most to lose or most to gain by what happens in Colombo. India’s concerns with Sri Lanka are national security as well as trade and power competition with its regional rival China. From a miserably failed Tamil community-centric bilateral relations under the congress leadership, India has successfully championed a more balanced approach under Premier Modi. Delhi government’s Neighbourhood First Policy has gone from what used to be insignificant to a comprehensive strategic investment bringing Indian conglomerates such as Adhani pouring money on port terminals to green energy and much more. India at all costs would want to see a pro-Indian leader in Colombo who would also eventually contribute to the anti-Chinese initiatives such as QUADS.

China has been a close friend, partner, and a spoiler from the Middle Kingdom times to now. Under President Xi Jinping’s global vision of becoming the global superpower overtaking the United States, Sri Lanka is a critical node to its trade and political reach. Sri Lanka is the connector between the East and the West in the China-led Belt and Road initiatives maritime version, the maritime Silk Road. Chinese investments in the country are in billions and vary from strategic investments to initiatives projecting soft powers. Sri Lanka will remain to be the most crucial piece of the Chinese Indian Ocean approach. Hence, Beijing would wish for a China-friendly leader but not necessarily one with an anti-India stance. China has realized the negative impacts of trying to turn Colombo to be an anti-Indian bastion but sees the benefit of not stepping on India’s feet while gaining what it could. 

In Sri Lanka’s geopolitical theater, the United States is undoubtedly the elephant in the room. Although situated 14,380 km away from Colombo separated by a few oceans and few continents, Washington has a greater interest in the Island nation’s internal affairs than it seems. You only need to see how the American embassy has grown almost double in size over the last decade to understand the significance it places in Sri Lanka. The United States with 76 years of diplomatic relations remains to be the island nation’s number one trade partner. Although posing to be a close friend, Washington has brought several anti-Sri Lankan resolutions to the United Nations earning the ire, wrath, and anger of its citizens. America sees Colombo as a potential and suitable ground to contest, compete, and halt the Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean and beyond. Towards this end, they closely cooperate with India in investments and other initiatives. But Washington respects the interest of Delhi and the memories of the Cold War era serve as a predicament to not cross India’s maneuvering in Colombo. 

While India and the United States have parallel running interests, their competition with Beijing brings them under one fold. But Delhi’s Russia-friendly attitude, fierce independent global view as well as pro-global south approaches are thorns in the eyes of American ruling elites. Beijing has no special love for Sri Lanka however will not allow anyone to elbow out of its zone of influence at any cost. Understandably Colombo is a closely contested turf between Delhi, Washington, and Beijing. The presidential elections take place in such a backdrop. So the question is who could navigate in this geopolitical minefield not stepping on anyone’s feet while achieving the core national interest? Now let’s look at the three leaders separately.

The incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe hails from a party that has traditionally been pro-western. He was always criticized as a Western stooge by the conservative and left-leaning Sri Lankans. President Ranil Wickremesinghe is the current chairperson of the APDU or The Asia Pacific Democracy Union which is a regional association of center-right and right-wing political parties associated with the International Democracy Union where the American Republican Party is also a member. There needs no more telltales to assert his pro-western background as well as the values he embraces. But times have changed ever since and he has surprised everyone from east to west with his strong  non-aligned, pro-Global South stand. While hailing democracy, no amount of pressure could change his heart about Sri Lanka’s ties to the Russian Federation. From the Soviet times, Russia has been a country supportive of Sri Lanka and its population has a positive sentiment towards the Russians. The president has not only maintained those ties but also allowed Russian businesses to function with great enthusiasm. Sri Lanka has never condemned or criticized Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Ranil Wickramasinghe has criticized the West where it mattered while projecting the strategic power the country possesses. Yet he did not shy away from sending a naval ship to the American-led Prosperity Guardian security mission in the Red Sea. He welcomes Israeli tourists with open arms as well as allocates money to support the Palestinian children. He was the keynote speaker in many international forums and events during his very short tenure as the country’s president. The best part is his close friendship with Premier Modi while simultaneously emphasizing the importance of Chinese investments. It was Ranil Wickramasighe who suggested building a bridge across the Palk Bay connecting Sri Lankan with India,  effectively blocking any attempt by a future Indian government to dig the Sethu Samudram canal which would allow Indians to sail ships around their country depriving the lucrative transshipment business for Sri Lanka. He has signed up for several free trade agreements earning the praise of many international leaders from different camps.His effort is clearly to make Sri Lanka a regional transport, investment, and logistics hub while integrating to regional economies strongly. He stands out to be a leader who can not be arm-twisted by either India,China, or the United States. He has proved to be speaking his mind, pursuing the country’s agenda while avoiding folding under any pressure. Like MBZ or the UAE president Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan he seems a brutal pragmatist in foreign policy. His winning chances, political readings, and ground popularity are of course totally another thing.

Sajith Premadas is a highly favored front runner albeit his junior geopolitical exposure and experience compared to Ranil Wickramasinghe. But it is highly unlikely that a revolutionized foreign policy approach could be what one can expect from Sajith. Despite being an untested leader, he has a team that has been around the foreign policy block for a long time. This includes former foreign ministers, top diplomats, and various geopolitical professionals. Sajith like his ex-leader could mend closer ties with the West while preserving regional relationships. But there is a catch with his team. Given the diverse political groupings with polar opposite world views in his team including the former Rajapaksha party loyalists, well-known Sinhalese nationalists, and military personalities it is hard to imagine how cohesive the direction could be. Given the prominent role Dr. Dayan Jayathilika could potentially play in shaping the foreign policy of such an administration, Sri Lankans could very well poised to be anti-Western.Then there are pro western personalities such as  Eran Wickrmasinghe, Dr Harsha De Silva while not forgetting the pro Indian Tamil leaders hailing from central province who are originally Indian by descent. Sri Lanka under him could very well continue its non-aligned journey yet how successful they will be to play the three capitals against each other to get the best from all fronts is all but guaranteed.

Anura Kumara Dissanayaka is hugely popular amongst Gen Z voters, professionals, and many Sri Lankans who are wishing for a true change. His anti-corruption platform could very well reach the 50 % mark needed to bring him to the helm of the country’s power. But neither his party nor its affiliated groups have run a government ever. Most of their policies concerning economic, social, and reforms seem to have won people’s approval. How they will steer ahead in a tricky geopolitical mind field is unclear. While the core of the party is the Marxist JVP, many of its civil society organizations hold liberal social and economic values. JVP has traditionally been an anti-western, anti-Indian party throughout its history. The old-guard JVP and the younger moderate NPP members do not have the same worldview. In principle, we could expect them to maintain the traditional nonaligned policy Sri Lanka has held but their pro-Palestinian, pro-socialist, anti-western sentiments could bring them head-on with certain global powers. Their inexperienced nature could be a tool at disposal for assertive powers like India who field some of the best diplomats in the world. Compared to Ranil Wickramasinghe and Sajith Premadasa, Sri Lankan will be at its most vulnerable status geopolitically under an NPP rule although they could be the real change its citizens are hoping for. There are too many unknowns with regards to how the NPP’s foreign policy will be in the practical world. Whether or not they will be able to stand their grounds securing Sri Lanka’s national interest while facing the tidal waves of geopolitical pressure from great powers with vested interest has no past precedent. The nation could only hope for the best in case the NPP comes to power.

Geopolitics would be the least of concerns for an absolute majority of Sri Lankans in the election. Yet it is wiser to be mindful of how external players could easily manipulate local outcomes to further their agendas while reversing any meaningful victory in the country. The whole global system is changing at a breakneck speed where the American power is eroding on all fronts while the global south is determinedly fighting for a multipolar world. If the country fails to elect a leader who will hug Vladimir Putin, shake hands with whoever occupies the White House, sit with Modi for tea, and open the port city building with Xi-Jinping, Sri Lanka will face dire consequences. In the event that a weaker leader is what Sri Lankans choose, either the Indians, the Chinese, or the Americans are guaranteed to eat our lunch.