The second paper. (initially published on 24 March 2022): https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kostiantyn-t-67a498139_occupation-of-ukraine-the-second-paper-activity-6915750642716155904-rGwR?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_web
It has not happened yet. However, nothing real, adequately real has been done to prevent the tragedy except usual, well-trained simulations of efforts. This paper is only about officials of all kinds. It is not about millions and millions of free world people who reacted rapidly against Russian aggression and supported victims of the massacre with their maximum available capacity.
Reactional or passive behavior means that someone else’s scenario is going to unfold. That’s okay if there’s nothing to be afraid of, if the scenario isn’t dangerous, harmful, or threatening to dramatically change the sole essence of principles, values and the future of those involved.
Point 1. Absolutely critical point.
Can the 1st month of Russian military failure be beneficial to Russia? A strange question? Well, it is difficult to understand, but it is possible.
Let’s start from the point that some leaders do not care how many people are killed or die as a result of the implementation of their ill ideas! Yes, it is monstrous, inhuman, but, unfortunately, it is not something new on this planet. The important emphasis is that one should not confuse a failure and lack of intellect with monstrous and inhuman actions as that might lead to tragic consequences.
In fact, some politicians are sensitive to human losses not due to their internal beliefs but more as result of public opinion. Still, even those politicians are limited in their calculations, but some are not.
The critical moment for the understanding is that it does not matter for the tyrant who the victims are – part of their own horde or an opposing nation. It means that if the monster needs to kill 20-40 millions of their own people it would still be acceptable to the tyrant just as it was with Stalin’s repressions and the same amount of victims just 60-80 years ago.
Next, let’s ask the following question regarding the first month only of the Russian invasion further into Ukraine. Does it seem a bit strange that the majority of the Russian ground troops were 18-21 years old, unprepared soldiers, unprofessional, and unmotivated? Does it seem strange that no change has been made to correct the situation by Russians after the first few thousands of their soldiers have been killed and hundreds of heavy weapons have been destroyed? Does it seem a bit strange that Russia, who spent 8 years in Syria, and was massively present in Libya, CAR, and other hot conflict zones within the last decade, sent so unprepared and unprofessional units?
Is it strange that Russia who can easily concentrate appropriate proportion for the attacking troops like 10:1 or 15:1, has not done so? Moreover, Russia dispersed its quite limited (relative to the length of the line of the attack) attacking force along the line of about 2000 kilometers. Strange?
Is it strange that such cities as Mariupol and Kharkiv could so easily be encircled and blocked from a safe distance allowing the rest of the troops to save potential, concentrate potential and continue movement much deeper to block all lines of communications? This question is strengthened by the fact that limited Ukrainian troops were forced to be dispersed along the 2000 km line of the attack as well, which means that the encircled troops within a single city would have extraordinarily limited options and almost zero capacity for attacking outside the fortified lines at a distance of 20-40 km.
Instead, Russians postponed their further movement to conduct WW2-style, inhuman, massacre by flattening two major Ukrainian cities slowly killing thousands and thousands every day. Why?
Moreover, Kharkiv and Mariupol are not just major cities. They are Russian-speaking cities, at least a large percentage of their population is. These two cities are exactly where Russian support historically was higher than in other Ukrainian cities. Then why?
Unpreparedness, unprofessionalism and lack of motivation, among other reasons, are the possible answer. Moreover, it is the correct answer to some extent. But, did we miss something?
I hope there are enough questions. Let’s come to some possible answers or, perhaps it is more correct to say, possible options. Let`s return to the initial question: Can the 1st month of Russian military failure be beneficial to Russia?
Well, there is an option for the answer – yes, it can be beneficial.
Could you imagine the circumstances, methods and chances of any realistic approach for the Tyrant to transform Russia into a military Empire nowadays? Could you imagine how an ill-minded Russian leadership could convince 140 million Russians that now they should refuse to build their families, do business, stop travelling, to refuse everything they had just for the purpose of being part of the military empire and supporting all its needs and first disregarding their personal feelings, hopes, believes, loved ones? Ask the same question recollecting that at least 20-40% of those 140 million have already travelled around the world for the last 20 years and the rest explored the world by internet. Ask the same question recollecting that Russia was part of the global diplomacy and trade world. Have you found any realistic scenario? If yes, I would highly appreciate it if you would share it with me as I could not answer this question. (It is different a universe to ask the question why they need military empire. The military empire is something of Russia’s recent past and the current present).
The next step is to connect all the questions above with the Russian leadership intention to transform Russia. Let`s take the question with Russian human losses. Imagine that profoundly and totally ignorant Russian society, all its cities would receive on a regular basis, the Russians killed in actions who are 18-22 years old and killed in Ukraine by Ukrainians.
Yes, people under strong emotions rarely ask questions and much less rarely are trying to clarify the reasons for the consequences of their actions. Now, it is time to add the word ignorant people as it is the multiplexor. Imagine that every day in the majority of Russian cities people would bury not 30-50 years old military professionals, but 18-22 years old kids whom they knew just months ago.
Imagine that Russian news agencies, famous Russian news agencies would show flattened Kharkiv and Mariupol, knowing that everybody from the former USSR knows that those cities had large percentage of Russian speakers. Guess, what would be the comments written by Russian propaganda super professionals.
Guess, what the Russian people would feel for days and weeks? What kind of emotions they would experience? Well, let us look at two options. Option one: compassion, love, forgiveness, understanding. Or Option two: impulse for revenge, aggression, pain.
Well, if the Russian society would feel love and compassion then the Russian leadership would have nothing to offer the Russian people as those terms are simply lying somewhere out of the current Russian leadership universe.
BUT, if they feel raising aggression and the need for revenge …………………………………………………………………………………………………..
(I am sorry, this is, unfortunately, the darkest of humour ever. In fact, this is no less a total tragedy for those Russians who are still human than it is for all Ukrainians. It is for Russians the moment of truth when they are transformed from sleeping, ignorant humans into war machines by stilling their souls, their hopes, and memories.),………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
the Tyrant would be happy to lead them and assist them. In this case, answer those questions above regarding how many efforts the dark empire should exert to convince the Russian people to work just to get food and barracks as the rest would be required by the empire to defeat its enemies to make everything Russia.
Russia needs to eliminate at first love, compassion, understanding, forgiveness, and only then transfer sleeping and ignorant people into war machines. Russia is producing aggressiveness. This is its main goal. It does not matter who falls victim to the aggressiveness as the goal is to multiply aggressiveness from all sides. And this is validation for them that there is no way back!
Yes, I state that the initial defeat was at least partially if not fully a Russian scenario. Although I hope to be mistaken.
There is no need to continue this point with explanations and questions. The rest is also quite easily understandable.
Intentionally, the rest of the points will be reduced to a minimum as they are much easier to understand and do not require much explanation.
Russia will show to literally everyone that western values, promises, integrity, and principles have absolutely zero value in regard to the protection of other nations, integrity, independence, human rights, and people no matter what and no matter how many millions are killed or suffer.
Unfortunately, this is something which is very true. All explanations are omitted intentionally as they are devoid of facts. Simply, cross out all rhetoric and useless speeches of unprofessional politicians (as soon as they failed to prevent the free world from a new tragedy, which is their primary function). Do not pay attention to any words. Leave just proclaimed values, promises and facts!
30 days of Ukrainian massacre – big and small cities are flattened, thousands of Ukrainians are dead, 3 million Ukrainians have crossed the border, another million internally displaced, another million are searching for ways to survive and protect their loved ones. AND!!! 30 days of Ukrainian massacre: the US, the guarantor of Ukraine’s security, signatory of the Budapest memorandum – Attention – the US promised to accept 100,000 Ukrainian refugees. NO COMMENTS. It must be checked and evaluated individually! Another famous guarantor and the Budapest agreement signatory – Britain – 30 days of Ukrainian massacre – Britain announced that additional economic sanctions will take place. Whom do you represent, western politicians? Who are the people you work for, the most professional western politicians? In its broadest sense, who are you, western professionals of all kinds?
SOMETHING IS TOTALY WRONG INSIDE THE LEADERSHIP OF THE FREE WORLD!
THE QUESTION IS SIMPLE. IF WE IGNORE IT NOW, WILL WE BE ABLE TO SAVE THE REST?!
Russia will show literally everyone that it is capable of force to destroy any state and is capable to act not just against separate entities or groups of entities but ultimately against a global coalition. The key to this point is the duration of the massacre to make sure that everyone understands and memorizes the Russian message.
Russia will show literally everyone that there are strong doubts regarding the joined internal protection of NATO members. At the same time as tearing Ukraine to pieces, different NATO members pursue their own interests, simulate efforts to support Ukraine, or shift the responsibility to act onto others. In other words, in the face of a common NATO threat, NATO members afford to act dramatically differently and are unable to adjust equally concerted efforts to deal with a common existential threat. Is it the responsibility of the grocery store workers? What is the personal responsibility for the long time, well-paid professionals?
Postponed for at least for 3-5 years, the economic crises or it is safe to say that the economic tensions within the global market in general and the west economies in particular, have been continuously accumulated by the markets, governments, and societies since the 2008 financial crises. Russian aggression into Ukraine (along with the increasing ties between two great powers Russia and China) might appear to be a great impact on the western economies, which were on the brink of the next financial disaster just before the aggression into Ukraine began. Significantly increased prices for energy resources for the foreseeable future, added logistic challenges and increased aggressiveness and uncertainty on global markets will ensure strained economic conditions for the free world.
It is worth mentioning that the global economic situation is not the product of Russia, but the result of the long work of professionals and officials in the economic sphere. The Russian product is to use the momentum to strike the free world in the economic sphere hurting simultaneously free world societies and dramatically increasing existing social tensions.
The existing total ignorance of the free world society to who their leaders are and, where and how they lead the free world, the ignorance of the consequences of the proud achievements of the free world officials, analysts, experts (like 2 trillion spent on Afghanistan or Iraq with the only negative outcomes for all involved people internally and abroad), the ignorance of the other people suffering (of course it is not about individuals,… great, amazing, heroic thousands of individuals, but it is written about the majority or the masses!!!) — will lead to mid-term perspective tiredness of the free world societies manifesting itself in reduced activeness, change of priorities, increased self-care. The next phase is the increased internal tensions for a variety of reasons starting from lowered social protection and decreased economic security; the existing radicals; the rise of populists and opportunists. If true, it will divide and dramatically weaken the free world…dramatically to the point of facing an existential threat including the threat – to transform into the half-orcs’ mentality.
States and nations who fell victim to the democracy-building processes led by the free world for the last 20 years will join the dark kingdom’s sphere of influence increasing their power in terms of geographical representation, global votes, as well as human resources to undermine the free world. It is not necessarily the military component, it might be, for instance, the limitation of energy minerals extraction or other strategic resources or organizing the mass immigration/migration into the free world as it has already been before. It is also a major point for the internal consumption of the dark kingdom to prove that Russia is great again leading the world masses.
The dark kingdom has verified who is its friend, who is its situational partner and who is its enemy inside the kingdom as well as outside talking in regard to states, organizations and groups. The reality will filter the promises and agreements. …It would be funny to observe the official posture of some states if there is not an ocean of human blood. The so-called moderate or careful, at the time of the massacre and the unprecedented (relative to the past precedents) international unification…. I omit to name those as there are not a few but many. Those are the first candidates to join the dark kingdom in the near future (hopefully, those governments and respective nations know what and why they do so).
The dark kingdom will be rebuilt within new realities, technologies and generations. Everything is back for the inhuman, merciless totalitarian machine to produce strong warriors; any internal resistance is identified and annihilated providing assurances for the internal stability of Russia.
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Retired military at Ukraine Armed Forces
My Social Networks profiles where you can get more articles as well my personal info:
The first paper page: https://www.facebook.com/Kostiantyn.Tkachuk.Paper.1
The second paper page: https://www.facebook.com/Kostiantyn.Tkachuk.Paper.2