The French Election has become much more important than just another European Election. The very reason is one outcome in particular could have earth shattering impacts beyond the shores of continental Europe.
If incumbent President Emmanuel Macron wins the Presidency , things will function as they are. Probably business as usual. But an upsetting win by the Far right leader Ms.Marine Le Pen will make things much more different from what it is now. It wouldn’t just be her immigration policies that would create the ruffle between the Euro Atalaitic nations but her different views about NATO, War in Ukraine , attitude towards Russia & EU as a whole would certainly do.
She has a positive sentiment towards President Putin. Thus if elected will reflect on her foreign policy. The current unity allegedly in existence between the EU member states might start to have its moment of truth. In Fact it might start to crumble at a rapid speed. France holds the Presidency of the COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION currently & the decisions that France takes might change the entire European approach to the Ukrainian conflict. This conflict has now become a proxy war between East & West in many senses. Its ramifications have been felt in every single country. The whole global geopolitical spectrum is changing by minute. That is the very reason what happens in France matters to the whole world.
The real question seems to be beyond the usual ” can Ms.Marine Le Pen win this time ?” notion to Why is the entire Euro -Atlantic world or the collective west for that matter is worried this time ?
President Macron seems to have a lead as per the polls. Well so did Hilary Clinton at one point. Other than the unfavorable social opinion about the current president & the last minute surge in pro Ms. Marine Le Pen support, there seems to be a third factor that has emerged to worry everyone across the political circles. The ” Jean-Luc Antoine Pierre Mélenchon ” or ” Mélenchon ” as he is known seems to be the game changing person. The Far left candidate managed to get 21.95 % of votes. Now that is a substantial support. But what of him might help decide the final vote ? His declaration of being open to be the Prime Minister of France either under Marcon’s presidency or Le Pen’s presidency is something of a game changer. Besides that the most worrisome development would be indications of what ” Mélenchon ” supporters would do at the Elections. A whooping 66% seems to be abstaining from voting Either President Macron or Ms.Marine Le Pen . This might hurt the incumbent president way more than Ms. Le Pen. A similar scenario took place in the USA with the young supporters of Bernie Sanders. They opted to stay home instead of voting for Hilary Clinton. As we know, the rest is history.
Against all the pressure from EU & Ukraine , the populist Prime minister Viktor Orban of Hungary made an astounding victory in its elections. His political party Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance is a right-wing populist movement just like the National Rally of Ms. Le Pen. I am not trying to draw parallels since the contexts are different in many ways. But it could very well hold some key to the outcome of today’s elections.
There is no guarantee what is really going to happen today in the French Election. But the whole world will feel it.